"The Time Has Come" the Walrus Said.

This year’s Rangers team is without a doubt the best Rangers team ever, and at the same time will not be the best Rangers team ever. Seem like an oxymoron? Let me explain.

Based on talent, the Rangers enter spring training with the best squad they have ever had. But if we were to measure greatness based on wins, this years team will have to eclipse the mark set by the 1999 Rangers, of 95 wins. Though I think this team has more talent than the ’99 team (as well as more talent than the 94 win team of 1974), I think there are a few key reason that will keep the 2010 Rangers from reaching 95 wins.

Fact: The Rangers have had a league MVP in each of the three seasons they have made playoffs (J. Gonzalez – ’96, J. Gonzalez – ’98, I. Rodriguez – ’99)[1].

Let’s start with a look at the talent this year.
1B – Chris Davis – Powerful slugger who adopted some patience at the plate after a mid season trip back down to triple-A last season. However, top hitting prospect Justin Smoak is looming in the wings, and may be almost ready for his big break.
2B – Ian Kinsler – Can hit, field, and run with the best of them. Look for a back-to-back 30/30 season, and my personal pick for league MVP.
3B – Mike Young – He had his second best hitting season of his career last year at .322, and always plays great defense.
SS – Elvis Andrus – In his rookie campaign, he hit a meager .267, but managed 33 steals. His minor league scouting reports have pegged Andrus with the potential to hit .300 consistently, so I expect more hits, more steals, and more runs scored in 2010. Not to mention the occasional Sports Center appearance on account of his stellar glove work.
LF – Nelson Cruz – in ’09 he hit 33 homeruns in just 462 at bats (or 1 every 14 Abs), that kind of power can put you in the homerun race come September.
CF – Julio Borbon – Here’s a reason to get excited, Borbon stole 19 bases in just 157 at bats. Let me put it another way: Borbon stole 19 bases in just 64 times on base (hits + walks). That’s a stolen base every 3.37 times he reaches base. He hit .312 last season… if this guy can figure out how to draw more walks...
RF – Josh Hamilton – Let’s forget about last year’s injuries and take a moment to remember the 2008 homerun derby… Yeah, that’s the Josh Hamilton we’re hoping for.
C – Jason Saltalamacchia/Taylor Teagarden – There’s some debate over who gets this job. Salty is the favorite because he’s the better hitter, but team management has stated it's an open competition. And anytime there’s a position battle, it means it’s a weaker position. Catcher could turn out to be the biggest liability the Rangers have this season[2].
DH – Vladimir Guerrero – 8 time all star, 7 time silver slugger, and the 2004 MVP… But the real reason for optimism over this signing: Vlad has a .384 batting average in 50 games at the Ballpark in Arlington.

Fact: No one has stolen more than 80 bases in a season since Ricky Henderson and Vince Colman did it in the 1988 season. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, I’m just saying, wouldn’t it be awesome.

Now onto the rotation:
At this point I would like to refer to this article by Jamey Newberg.

Let’s assume that Rich Harden and Scott Feldman fill the number 1 and 2 spots respectively. It also seems likely that Coldy Lewis will get a rotation spot as well. That leaves an interesting battle for the last two spots (between Derek Holland, Tommy Hunter, Matt Harrison, Brandon McCarthy, and Neftali Feliz). But I want to go on record as I saying “I don’t care.” It really doesn’t matter who wins those last two spots. Because I know from many years of watching the Rangers, that injuries and/or poor pitching will make the opening season rotation all but forgotten by May 1st.

Somebody once said, “It takes three good starters to win the World Series[3].” Meaning a team has to have three starting pitchers, that can legitimately perform at a top level, in order to win a World Series. Sure it takes good hitting. Sure it takes good defense. But pitching is paramount. And the Rangers might just be capable of going strong, three deep in the rotation, come October. So the real position battle isn’t for the last two spots in the rotation. The real position battle is for the number three spot in the rotation around late-September.

Fact: Last Season, Ranger’s pitching yielded 740 runs. The fewest the team has yielded since 1995.

The bullpen:
I have to say, I’m a little worried about the bullpen. Relief pitching accounts for a third of the pitching. That’s a lot. In my mind, the bullpen is every bit as important as the rotation. And here is what we know for sure: Frank Francisco will close games, CJ Wilson and Darren Oliver are left-handed… That’s about it. I think the bullpen could be good, but I think the Rangers are a middle-reliever away from being a true contender. But for now, let’s keep our fingers crossed that Mike Maddux has this thing under control (or will suit up if the need arises).

Fact: Last season, the Rangers scored 784 runs. The fewest the team has scored since 1995.

This team is awesome. From top to bottom, one of the best in the majors. Potentially even, the best. And yet, the will not win 95 games. Why? To quote the groundskeepers in the movie Major League, “They’re still shitty.” But why? Why won’t they let us have this? Why must they always fall to mediocrity? Because of Injuries. This is what will be our demise this season. Let’s say our five best hitters are Hamilton, Guerrero, Kinsler, Cruz, and Young. Between these five, I predict they will miss a combined 160 games due to injuries. Equivocally, that’s like not having one of these guys at all. For example, if we didn’t have Cruz and we had David Murphy[4] instead. That’s not bad, but it could be enough to make us a second place team. Not to mention that Rich Harden and Colby Lewis are a bit of a gamble in that area too. I fear that injuries are the one (and only) thing that keeps this years team from being the greatest Ranger’s team ever.

Well, I’m only basing that on regular season wins. If we were to consider something else to gauge this teams success, it might be a different story. Such as… I don’t know… post season victories.

Fact: The Ranger’s are the oldest team in any of the 4 major US sports (MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA), to never have appeared in a league championship game[5].

This is my prediction. Injuries plague the Rangers most of the season. But everyone seems to get healthy around mid to late-August. Pedro Borbon struggles early, but a mid season trip to triple-A gives him patience at the plate (like 2009 Chris Davis). Our starting pitching depth allows us to keep some key starters from getting burned out too soon. A slightly milder summer weather-wise keeps everyone from burning out too soon. Everything starts to come together around mid-August. Traditionally, this has been a time for the Rangers to begin their decline. But 2010, things will be different. The Rangers don’t win 95 games, but they do win the division. The Rangers win in post season. Kinsler wins MVP. Ron Washington wins Manager of the Year. I win a million dollars[6].

Fact: Making bold predictions and reciting meaningless stats is part of what makes baseball so enjoyable. That, and Yogi Berra quotes[7].


1. Also, the 94 win 1974 team featured MVP winner Jeff Burroughs. But the team finished second behind the Oakland A’s.
2. That’s not true, injuries are the biggest liability the Rangers have.
3. Yes, I am absolutely insinuating that the Rangers have a shot.
4. Actually, I’m predicting David Murphy to get around 420 at bats and bolster a .280 average. Not bad for your 4th outfielder.
5. And the only MLB team to never have won a playoff series.
6. If it turns out I know nothing about baseball, let this prediction be the one that comes true.
7. "I always thought that record would stand until it was broken."